Market Conditions & Material Costs

Asphalt is a product of crude oil refining, and crude oil is the primary feedstock for asphalt production. Since the start of the Iranian conflict, crude oil prices have surged by over 50%. This is driving market increases across many refined products, as we can see at the gas pump. State DOT asphalt binder indexes are also beginning to show significant upward movement.

Crude oil is priced per barrel, and there are roughly 5.5 barrels of oil per ton of asphalt — so a $10/bbl increase in crude translates to roughly $55/ton of asphalt.

In the News: Resources

• ENR — March Material Prices ‘Surge’ Amid Iran Conflict (April 14, 2026)
• Construction Dive — Iran War Impacts on Oil Prices Spiked Construction Stress (April 14, 2026)
• Construction Superintendent — Construction Materials Prices Soar in April, Up 6.2% Since January (May 21, 2026)
  Construction input prices increased 1.7% in April compared to the previous month, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data.
• Yahoo Finance — Crude Oil Front-Month Futures (CL=F)

State DOT Asphalt Cement Index Adjustments

Many states use asphalt cement index adjustment clauses to protect both the supplier and the agency from unstable prices. Two publications — Poten & Partners Asphalt Weekly Monitor and Argus Americas Asphalt Weekly Report — publish prices weekly and are widely used across the industry. Most states with index adjustments, including CDOT, base their posted index on one or both of these publications and update monthly. Nevada updates weekly, and Caltrans updates monthly based on crude prices.

• CDOT (monthly, Poten & Partners and Argus based): Asphalt Cement Cost Adjustment — Colorado DOT
• Nevada DOT (weekly, Poten & Partners based): AWP Asphalt Escalation
• Caltrans (monthly, crude-based): California Statewide Crude Oil Price Index

Industry Outlook — Poten & Partners

“Rising refining costs are set to sharply increase asphalt wholesale and retail pricing in the coming weeks in the US. This situation is occurring so early in the year, before most paving has begun. As US refining markets adjust to these new economics, it is likely to see less asphalt production occurring until asphalt prices move notably higher. Refineries will likely adjust their slates to maximize margins, which could reduce supply across the US. Additionally, some coastal producers could export more material to Europe or further away destinations should those economics become more attractive than domestic sales.”

“With all these drastic changes pending, most participants are hoping for a quick resolution to the conflict in Iran and the stabilization of petroleum prices. The sooner that occurs, the less impact it will have on the asphalt markets. Nonetheless, the current stage has markets primed to experience a very volatile first half of 2026. Many suppliers have already released letters noting expected sharp increases in wholesale and retail pricing over the coming weeks, should the refining situation not rapidly return to late-February levels.”

Read the full Poten & Partners article: Surging Crude and Product Prices Begin to Affect Asphalt Markets